February 14, 2013

U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley

By Greg Janetka

DES MOINES, Iowa: On February 7, Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley became the first to officially announce his candidacy for Tom Harkin‘s U.S. Senate seat in 2014. Harkin (D) announced last month that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate once his current term expires. Upon his retirement, he will have served in the U.S. Senate for 30 years.^[1][2]

Following Harkin’s announcement, Democrats quickly circled around Braley and he was expected to throw his hat into the ring.^[3] Braley has represented Waterloo in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2007.^[4]

Following his announcement, Braley stated, “I’m excited about this opportunity. I love the state of Iowa, I love the people of Iowa. I plan to work very hard over the next two years to be able to convince the entire state that I am best capable of representing them in the U.S. Senate.”^[5]

Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham are considered the Republican frontrunners. If they both decide to join the race it is expected to be a contentious fight for the nomination.^[6]

January 31, 2013

U.S. Senator Tom Harkin

By Greg Janetka

CUMMING, Iowa: On Saturday, Tom Harkin (D) announced that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate once his current term expires. Upon his retirement, he will have served in the U.S. Senate for 30 years. Prior to this, he served in the U.S. House for ten years. Harkin was first elected in 1984, making him seventh in overall seniority and fourth among Democrats. He told USA Today, ”I have mixed feelings. You know what, it’s somebody else’s turn. To walk away from this position and this power is not an easy thing. But I think it’s the right thing.”^[1][2]

As soon as Harkin announced his retirement the question became who would run for the seat. Here’s the major names that have been tossed around and what they have said:

 Democrats

• Rep. Bruce Braley: Democrats quickly circled around Braley and he is expected to announce his candidacy for the open seat tomorrow. He is meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Michael Bennet today.^[3]

 Republicans

• Gov. Terry Branstad: In no uncertain term, Branstad clearly stated he has no interest in the seat. “I don’t want to go to Washington, D.C. I don’t want to spend time there. I don’t mind visiting the place … but I love this state. I love this state and I don’t want to spend six years in Washington, D.C,” he stated.^[4]
• Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds: Iowa is one of only four states to have never elected a woman to Congress. Reynolds said her focus is on her work with Gov. Branstad in Iowa but is keeping her options open.^[5]
• Rep. Steve King: Prior to Harkin’s announcement King said he was considering a run for the Senate. The main question is does the conservative King have a chance at winning the seat? When asked last November, Gov. Branstad said he didn’t think King could win in Eastern Iowa.^[6] On Monday King said, “It’s going to take some time to be able to determine what level of support would be out there.”^[7]

• Rep. Tom Latham: According to his chief of staff, James Carstensen, Latham’s weighing his options and “all doors are open.” Latham is seen by most as having a better chance to win statewide than King.^[7]

January 15, 2013

By Greg Janetka

DES MOINES, Iowa: As 2013 sessions get underway across the country, most state legislators will be facing the difficult prospect of a budget deficit which must be resolved. Standing out from the crowd is Iowa, where severe cost cutting and healthy tax revenues have led to a nearly $1 billion surplus. However, that doesn’t necessarily make the political process of creating a budget any easier.

“I think the budget is always a challenge whether it’s a tight budget or a flush budget,” explained Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (D). The sentiment was echoed by Dave Roederer, top budget aide to Gov. Terry Branstad (R), as he simply stated, “It’s no prettier.”^[1]

As always, the budget process comes down to conflicting interests. Branstad unveiled his $6 billion budget plan yesterday, which focuses on investment in education and cutting commercial property taxes. The governor laid out a $187 million plan to invest in K-12 education over the next five years, including increasing starting salaries for teachers and tuition assistance for aspiring teachers. The plan would be funded with the budget surplus.

Other Republicans, meanwhile, are looking to spend most of the surplus on tax cuts. Prior to the governor releasing his proposal, Speaker of the House Kraig Paulsen said, “House Republicans, Republicans in general, we believe it’s your money. We believe it’s Iowans’ money.”^[2]

By Ballotpedia’s Congressional team

MADISON, Wisconsin: Iowa had four U.S. House seats on the ballot in 2012, after one was removed in redistricting following the 2010 census. Five total incumbents sought re-election on November 6, 2012, with two incumbents, Leonard Boswell (D) and Tom Latham (R) running in the 3rd district. Latham, the incumbent from the removed 5th district, won the election.

Here are the candidates who won election from Iowa.

District	General Election Candidates	Incumbent	2012 Winner	Partisan Switch?
1st	Bruce Braley  Ben Lange Gregory Hughes George Todd Krail II	Bruce Braley	Bruce Braley	No
2nd	Dave Loebsack  John Archer	Dave Loebsack	Dave Loebsack	No
3rd	Leonard Boswell  Tom Latham David Rosenfeld Scott G. Batcher	Leonard Boswell	Tom Latham	Yes
4th	Christie Vilsack  Steve King Martin James Monroe	Tom Latham	Steve King	No
5th	District Removed in Redistricting	Steve King	N/A	N/A

Margin of victory for winners

There were a total of 4 seats up for election in 2012 in Iowa. The following table shows the margin of victory for each district winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%.

District	Winner	Margin of Victory	Total Vote	Top Opponent
Iowa, District 1	Bruce Braley	15.4%	390,590	Ben Lange
Iowa, District 2	Dave Loebsack	13.1%	380,952	John Archer
Iowa, District 3	Tom Latham	8.6%	386,270	Leonard Boswell
Iowa, District 4	Steve King	8.1%	377,657	Christie Vilsack

National picture

Both chambers of the United States Congress remain split after the November 6, 2012 election. Democrats increased their majority in the U.S. Senate while cutting into the Republicans majority in theU.S. House. Of the 435 candidates who won election to the U.S. House, 85 of them were challengers, which represents 19.5 percent of U.S. House members. Of those 85, 50 are Democratic and 35 are Republican. A total of 27 incumbents were defeated — 10 Democratic and 17 Republican.

November 1, 2012

By Ballotpedia’s Congressional team

DES MOINES: Iowa: Iowa has four U.S. House seats on the ballot in 2012. All four congressional districts have at least two candidates on the ballot in the general election.

Three of the four Congressional seats are held by Democratic incumbents with the other being held by a Republican incumbent.

According to the New York Times race ratings in October 2012, the 3rd and 4th districts are considered to be in play.^[1]

Iowa’s 3rd congressional district is considered to be a toss-up according to the New York Times race ratings. Due to redistricting, incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) will face off against fellow incumbent Tom Latham (R) in the general election. They are vying for election in a district that is made up of nearly the same number of Republican, Democratic, and Independent voters.^[1]

Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district’s partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Iowa’s 3rd congressional district has a PVI of R+1. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 53-47 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 53-47 percent over John Kerry (D).^[2]

Iowa’s 4th congressional district is considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Steve King faces Democratic challenger Christie Vilsack.^[1]

Some of the organizations that have filed reports for campaign spending directed against incumbent Steve King include the SEIU and American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) and AFL-CIO. SEIU reportedly spent more than $30,000 on advertisements against King, while AFSCME reportedly spent $26,000.^[3][4]

Iowa’s 4th District has been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee‘s “Red to Blue List,” which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.^[5]

When comparing fundraising efforts between King and Democratic opponent Christie Vilsack, King has the upperhand by roughly $400,000.^[6]

In Iowa, all polls will be open from 7:00 AM to 9:00 PM Central time, one of the longest polling periods in the nation.^[7]

See also: State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2012) Here is a complete list of U.S. House candidates appearing on the general election ballot in Iowa:

• Candidates running by District
• Partisan breakdown by district
• Comparison of new and old redistricting maps

 

District	General Election Candidates	Incumbent	2012 Winner	Partisan Switch?
1st	Bruce Braley  Ben Lange Gregory Hughes George Todd Krail II	Bruce Braley	Pending	Pending
2nd	Dave Loebsack  John Archer	Dave Loebsack	Pending	Pending
3rd	Leonard Boswell  Tom Latham David Rosenfeld Scott G. Batcher	Leonard Boswell	Pending	Pending
4th	Christie Vilsack  Steve King Martin James Monroe	Tom Latham	Pending	Pending
5th	District Removed in Redistricting	Steve King	N/A	N/A

October 24, 2012

Florida. Ohio. Colorado. New Hampshire. You’ve no doubt heard a lot of talk about the presidential swing states. With just two weeks left until the general election, political reporters across the country consider anywhere from 3 to 10 states to be toss-ups in the race for the presidency. Here at the Lucy Burns Institute, our election analysts have focused on nine of those states with significant non-presidential races to present a full picture of the 2012 elections in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Whether it’s a congressional race pitting two incumbents against each other, a state legislative chamber that is one seat away from switching from a Democratic to a Republican majority, or a judicial election that will decide the balance of a state Supreme Court, the teams at Ballotpedia and Judgepedia have a breakdown of everything you’ll want to watch in these key states.

Colorado

Colorado voters will decide an important ballot measure this year; Amendment 64, on the November 6, 2012 ballot as an initiated constitutional amendment, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state. The measure will ask whether or not to legalize the use and possession of, at most, an ounce of marijuana for residents who are 21 and older. President Barack Obama‘s and Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s stance regarding marijuana legalization, regulation and taxation like alcohol is expected to influence the young voter population in Colorado.

After redistricting, two Congressional districts are considered to be up for grabs: the 6th district where incumbent Republican Mike Coffman is facing current state representative Joe Miklosi (D). The other seat that could swing is in the 3rd district, where freshman GOP representative Scott Tipton will attempt to hold off a challenge from Democratic state representative Sal Pace.

In the state House and state Senate, 32 incumbents are not seeking re-election – 16 from each party. One seat to pay close attention to is House District 47, from which Keith Swerdfeger (R) is retiring, leaving a seat for Democrats to potentially pick up. Netto Charles Rodosevich (D) will face Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff (R) in the general election.

Florida

In 2010, the Florida Supreme Court upheld three lower court rulings that struck three legislatively referred ballot measures from appearing on the statewide ballot that year. This year, the Florida Legislature passed a measure to the 2012 general election ballot that would revise provisions relating to repeal of court rules, limit readoption of repealed court rule and stipulate that all appointments to the Florida Supreme Court be subject to confirmation by the Florida State Senate. The proposed legislation also grants the state House access to investigate files of the Judicial Qualifications Commission. Although the measure, Amendment 5, is not an issue being discussed in the presidential race, any controversial or scrutinized measure in this swing state could send a rush of voters to the polls. On a related note, conservatives are leading a strong effort to oust Supreme Court Justices Barbara Pariente, Fred Lewis and Peggy Quince. The justices are under fire for various rulings in support of federal healthcare legislation, the death penalty and other controversial topics.

Florida gained two Congressional seats as a result of redistricting. Predictions vary, but as many as eight U.S. House seats could be in play. Perhaps more significant is the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Bill Nelson (D) and U.S. House Rep. Connie Mack (R). The seat leans in Nelson’s favor and he has polled out front. With the control of the Senate a toss-up, any close Senate battle is pivotal to both parties.

Iowa

An anti-retention effort against Justice David Wiggins is underway, led by conservatives who are upset with Wiggins’ participation in a unanimous 2009 ruling to overturn the state’s ban on gay marriage. The other three justices who voted in the case were not retained to their positions in 2010.

Iowa lost one Congressional seat as a result of redistricting. This has prompted an incumbent-vs-incumbent battle between Leonard Boswell (D) and Tom Latham (R) in the 3rd District. Though it’s not an incumbent match up, the race in 4th District is also expected to be very close, as incumbent Steve King (R) faces former First Lady of Iowa Christie Vilsack (D).

In the state Senate, Democrats hold a slim 26 to 24 majority, while Republicans have a 59 to 40 majority in the state House. Races to watch include Senate district 26, where incumbent Mary Jo Wilhelm (D) will face incumbent Merlin Bartz (R), and House district 13 with incumbents Chris Hall (D) and Jeremy Taylor (R) battling it out for the seat.

Maine

One of the most closely-watched ballot measures of the year comes from Maine. The state is one place in the country where the issue of gay marriage is starting to draw serious attention from both sides. Maine Question 1 would overturn a voter-approved 2009 ballot measure that banned same-sex marriage in the state.

With Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe retiring, the U.S. Senate seat in Maine is now considered a toss-up. The current frontrunner is former Governor of Maine Angus King, an Independent, who is expected to caucus with Democrats should he win the seat. King faces Cynthia Dill (D) and Charles Summers (R) in the election (along with several other third party candidates).

Republicans hold small majorities in both state legislative chambers. In Senate District 27, incumbent Douglas Thomas (R) is challenged by representative Herbert Clark (D). Clark is attacking Thomas by drawing attention to an unpopular proposed highway project that passes through the district. House district 94 will see the Assistant Democratic Leader Teresea Hayes opposed by Timothy Turner(R). Hayes narrowly kept her seat in 2012, escaping with a 2,122 – 2,012 victory.

Michigan

Though the Michigan Supreme Court race is technically non-partisan, it has been riddled with partisan conflict between the three Republican-endorsed candidates (Stephen Markman and Colleen O’Brien for the full term; Brian Zahra for the partial term) and three Democratic-endorsed candidates (Connie Marie Kelley and Bridget Mary McCormack for the full term; Shelia Johnson for the partial term). The loaded races have a total of ten candidates running for three seats on the court.

Michigan lost one congressional seat via redistricting. Of particular note is the 11th District, where incumbent Thaddeus McCotter (R) failed to qualify for the ballot and then subsequently resigned his seat. Tea Party-backed candidate Kerry Bentivolio will attempt to hold the seat for Republicans in both the regular election and a concurrent special election as well. He will face Syed Taj in the general election — and David Curson (D) in the special election.

One measure garnering attention in Michigan is Proposal 4. The initiative would place features of the Michigan Quality Community Care Council in the state constitution, in addition to providing home health care providers with limited collective bargaining. Collective bargaining rights has been an issue under much debate since 2011, when Ohio’s Senate Bill 5 took center stage.

New Hampshire

Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch (D) is not running for re-election. Former state senator Maggie Hassan (D) faces Ovide Lamontagne (R) in the general election. Polls are indicating a very close race for the governorship, which is one of only eleven gubernatorial races this year.

Both congressional districts in New Hampshire are in play. Currently, both seats are held by Republicans. Both races feature rematches from 2010, between Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and Frank Guinta in the 1st district and between Democrat Ann Kuster and Charlie Bass in the 2nd district.

North Carolina

After winning control of the state legislature in 2010, Republicans in North Carolina redrew the congressional redistricting map to swing in the GOP favor. Presently, seven of the 13 seats are held by Democratic incumbents, but several seats are expected to change hands in North Carolina on election night. The races of particular note are the 7th, 8th, 11th and 13th districts.

A total of 10 state executive positions are up for election this year in North Carolina. Democratic governor Bev Perdue is not running for re-election and Republican Pat McCrory is polling comfortably ahead of the Democratic nominee, current lieutenant governor Walter Dalton. The Republican Party is expected to gain a trifecta on election night by winning the governorship and maintaining control of both chambers of the legislature.

This year’s North Carolina Supreme Court election could shift the balance of the court. Though the state’s judicial races are technically nonpartisan, the political parties have each made their positions clear. The Republican-backed incumbent, Justice Paul Martin Newby, is challenged by Democrat-endorsed Sam Ervin. Currently, the political balance favors conservatives 4-3. A number of laws passed by Republicans in the General Assembly are currently being challenged in lawsuits that could find their way to the high court — raising the stakes of this election even higher.

Ohio

With three contested races for the Ohio Supreme Court, a variety of outcomes is possible. The results won’t shift the court’s conservative composition, which is 6-1 Republican, but they could serve as a bellwether for other Ohio races. Appointed incumbent Justice Yvette McGee Brown is competing in her first race to the court. If she wins election, Brown will be the first Democrat elected to the court since 2000. A willingness for Ohio voters to elect a Democrat to the high court may signify a shift of opinions in the perennially watched state.

The redistricting process in Ohio this year didn’t come without controversy, leading to Issue 2 on the general election ballot. The measure would create a 12-person citizen commission to draw legislative and congressional district maps. According to supporters of the measure, the commission would create districts that would reflect the state’s geographic, racial, ethnic and political diversity. The initiative would also bar lobbyists and elected officials from joining the commission. Currently, the Ohio Legislature redraws district maps every ten years following U.S. Census results.

Ohio lost two congressional seats this year. In one of the tightest U.S. Senate races of the year, incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is being challenged by current state treasurer Josh Mandel (R). Brown has maintained a slight lead in the polls as well as in fundraising. For the U.S. House, the 16th District race features an incumbent-vs-incumbent battle between Betty Sutton (D) and Jim Renacci (R). Another close race to watch is the rematch in the 6th District between incumbent Bill Johnson (R) and Charlie Wilson (D).

Pennsylvania

While the governor is not up for election, there are still three state executive elections taking place in Pennsylvania. The current attorney general, Linda Kelly, was appointed to the post by Gov. Tom Corbett and will not seek election to a full term. Democratic candidate Kathleen Kane, who edged out Patrick Murphy, the presumptive nominee, is polling out front of David Freed (R). Since the position became an elected post in 1980, no Democrat has ever won the office in a general election.

Both chambers of the legislature have the potential to swing from Republicans to Democrats. Republicans have a nine seat advantage in the Senate and a nineteen seat advantage in the House, but all four retiring Senators are Republicans. Close races in the Senate include open seats in Districts 15 and 49, while in the House Districts 3, 5, 37, and 197 (which is currently vacant) look to be some of the most competitive.

Pennsylvania lost one congressional seat as a result of redistricting. Currently Republicans hold 13 of the 19 seats in the state. Several races are considered to be competitive, including the 6th district,7th district, 8th district and 12th district. The 12th district is of particular note because it featured an incumbent-vs-incumbent battle in the primary, where Mark Critz (D) emerged victorious over Jason Altmire. Critz faces a strong challenge from Keith Rothfus (R) in the general election. If Rothfus wins, it would mean two incumbents lost within the same district in one election cycle — an extremely rare occurrence.

October 8, 2012

By Greg Janetka

DES MOINES, Iowa: Depending on the outcome of this year’s legislative elections, Iowa could see the end of publicly funded abortions. Republicans currently hold a comfortable majority in the state House and only need to pick up two seats to gain a majority in the state Senate. If they can pick up that chamber as well, GOP leaders say they will end the funding.^[1]

After the issue led to partisan deadlock, the Legislature adjourned their 2012 session in May without finishing their work on human services funding. Republican representatives had passed an amendment to the human services budget bill this year that would have ended taxpayer-financed abortions. Under current state law, exceptions are provided for abortions in cases of rape, incest, fetal deformity or to save the life of the mother.^[1]

Republicans plan to reintroduce the amendment in January and, if they are able to take the Senate in November, it would have an all but easy passage as Gov. Terry Branstad (R) has pledged his support.^[1]

On the same day that Republicans made the announcement, a new report on Iowa pregnancy and abortion rates was released by The Center for Global Reproductive Health at the University of California, San Francisco. According to the report, which was commissioned by the Iowa Initiative to Reduce Unintended Pregnancies, the number of abortions in the state had dropped by 24 percent since 2006.^[2]

September 27, 2012

By Greg Janetka

DES MOINES, Iowa: Game on, Iowa! Starting today voters in the Hawkeye State will begin casting ballots for the November 6 general election.^[1] Iowa is one of 33 states that has early voting with no specific requirements as to who can vote early. This year four seats are up in the U.S. House, along with 26 state senate seats and 100 state house seats.

According to the Iowa Secretary of State‘s office, there are approximately 18,000 more active registered Republican voters than Democrats. However, Democratic voters have thus far requested absentee ballots in much greater numbers.^[2]

To vote in Iowa, you must meet the following requirements:^[3]

• A U.S. citizen
• A Iowa resident
• At least 17 1/2 years old (must be 18 years old by election day to vote)

In addition, you cannot:

• Be a convicted felon (unless your voting rights have been restored)
• Be judged mentally incompetent to vote by a court
• Claim the right to vote in any other place

August 30, 2012

By Greg Janetka

DES MOINES, Iowa: The Iowa Public Information Board, which was created earlier this year by the state Legislature, held its second meeting on August 21. The independent organization, which is tasked with oversight and enforcement of the state public meetings and open records law, held it’s first meeting on July 19. However, the only public notice given was a posted meeting agenda on a bulletin board by the governor’s office, thus few people even knew it was happening.^[1]

While the IPIB does not yet have a budget, administrative rules, or staff, it has until July 2013 to become fully operational. Bill Monroe, the former executive director of the Iowa Newspaper Association, serves as the board’s chairman. At the meeting he addressed the role of the new organization, stating, “Most people start out with the assumption that 99.7 percent of people who handle public records want to do the right thing, but they don’t always know what the right thing is. We are not a gotcha agency. We are more of an agency where you can call for help and we will get you the right information.”^[2]

Made up of nine members appointed by the governor, the panel will hear and mediate disputes related to public meetings and open records between citizens and government bodies, with the power to issue fines of up to $2,500 for violations.^[3]

The members represent the media, public, and government. They are as follows:^[4]

• Bill Monroe, Board Chair -Media Representative
• Robert Andeweg – Government Representative
• Anthony Gaughan – Public Representative
• Jo Martin – Media Representative
• Andrew McKean – Public Representative
• Gary Mohr – Government Representative
• Kathleen Richardson – Media Representative
• Suzan Stewart – Public Representative
• Peggy Weitl – Government Representative

By Tyler King

MADISON, Wisconsin: Iowa’s legislative elections in 2012 are less competitive than most of the country, based on Ballotpedia’s Competitiveness index which captures the extent of electoral competitiveness exhibited in state legislative elections.

About the Competitiveness index:
The Ballotpedia state legislative competitive index looks at three factors: is the incumbent running for re-election in a district; if so, does he or she draw a primary challenge; and are there two major party candidates in the general election.

Ballotpedia’s index is created by summing the three percentages and then dividing by three. Each state is given 1 point for each percentage. Then, the points are added up and divided by three to establish the index rating. 1 is least competitive and 100 equals most competitive.

The comprehensive 2012 state legislative competitive index will be released following the completion of the primaries in all 44 states with 2012 state legislative elections. It will examine all 6,015 state legislative seats that are up for election on November 6, 2012.

Once a state releases official primary candidate lists, Ballotpedia staff analyzes the data to determine primary competitiveness. Just one state remains that has passed their filing deadline, but has not been analyzed by Ballotpedia staff – New York.

Iowa in 2012:
Iowa’s filing deadline was on March 16, 2012. It was the 16th state to be analyzed by Ballotpedia staff and the inclusion of its data brought the national index to 37.96 in 2012.

In Iowa, there are 126 total state legislative seats with elections in 2012 and more than 80% of current incumbents are seeking re-election.

Of those 126, 26 are State Senate seats and 100 are State House seats. A total of 97 incumbents (77.0%) are seeking re-election this year. Just 16 (16.5%) incumbents running for re-election face primary opposition. Additionally, there are 34 (26.9%) districts where an incumbent is not seeking re-election within that district. For November’s general elections, there will be 85 (67.5%) seats where two major party candidates will appear on the ballot.

Comparison to 2010:
In 2010, Iowa ranked 29th in overall competitiveness.

• 13.6% of Districts were open seats, increasing to 26.9% in 2012.
• 7.4% of incumbents faced primary opposition, increasing to 16.5% in 2012.
• 67.2% of Districts had two major party candidates in the general election, compared to 67.5% in 2012.
• Iowa’s 2010 competitiveness index was 29.4, compared to 37.0 in 2012.