By: Geoff Pallay

TRENTON, New Jersey: Next Tuesday, New Jersey’s Democratic and Republican candidates face party primaries in order to qualify for the November 8 general election. Each district holds two parallel primaries to select major party nominees. However, in the majority of districts, voters might as well stay home, given the lack of contested primaries.

New Jersey has 40 legislative districts, leaving 80 possible primaries in each chamber — 40 Democratic and 40 Republican. In the Senate, a primary is “contested” when at least two candidates are competing for their respective party’s nomination. In the General Assembly, a contested primary will feature at least 3 candidates since the top-2 vote getters advance to the general election.

There are only 9 contested primaries out of the 80 primaries in the Senate. In the General Assembly, only 15 of the 80 primaries are contested. All told, only 24 out of the 160 primaries on June 7 (15%) will require voters to choose between multiple candidates. In the remaining 136 primaries (85%), the candidate (or candidates in the New Jersey General Assembly) automatically advance to the general election.

Previous elections and primaries

How does this coming primary compare to prior years’ levels of competition? The table below compares the 2007, 2009 and 2011 primary candidate lists according to the following factors:

1. Was there an incumbent in the primary? If not, this was considered “Open”
2. Was the primary “contested,” as described above, meaning at least one candidate would ultimately “lose” the primary

The table breaks down the variables by political party as well.

Major findings:

• Total contested primaries have increased from 18 in 2007 to 24 in 2011
• While the number of incumbents contested has increased from 10 in 2007 to 12 in 2011, the number of uncontested incumbents has grown even more. In 2007, 53 incumbents were uncontested but 63 will advance straight to the general election in 2011 due to a decrease in open seats.
• The total number of uncontested primaries has stayed largely the same — 135 in 2007 and 132 in 2011.
• When combining all 400 primaries over the past 3 elections, 322 — or 80.5% — of all primaries have been uncontested.

Note: In 2009, only the General Assembly held elections. Senators are elected to four-year terms (except in the year after redistricting, like 2011, when they receive two-year terms).

2011 breakdown

• Senate Incumbents

• Of the senate’s 40 incumbents, 36 are running for re-election. Of these 36 incumbents, 31 will not face a primary opponent. The remaining five incumbents will face a primary challenger. Of these incumbents three are Democrats and two are Republicans.

• Assembly Incumbents

• There are 64 total incumbents running in the 2011 General Assembly elections. Of the state’s 80 multi-member assembly primaries, an incumbent is running in 39 of them. Of these 39 primaries, only seven are contested. Five are Democratic and two are Republican.

• Senate Open Primaries

• An open primary occurs whenever an incumbent is not running. This can result from the incumbent’s retiring or being a member of another political party. There are 44 open primaries in the State Senate, 27 are Republican, 17 are Democratic.

Of the 27 open Republican primaries, only 4 are contested. Of the 17 open Democratic primaries, none are contested.

• Assembly Open Primaries

• Of the 80 assembly primaries, 41 had no incumbent running. Of these 41, 24 are Republican and 17 are Democratic. Of the 24 open Republican primaries, only 6 are contested. Of the 17 open Democratic primaries, only 2 are contested.

According to a Ballotpedia study earlier this year, 19 candidates either withdrew or were disqualified after initially declaring for Tuesday’s primary. Had these candidates stayed in the race, then the number of candidates facing primary challengers would be higher.

The 24 contested primaries are:

Comparison to prior elections

Compared to the two most recent elections in New Jersey (2007 and 2009) the list of candidates this year is only marginally different with respect to competitiveness. While there are two more contested primaries overall, there are 9 more incumbents who are uncontested in this year’s primary than there were in 2007.

Comparison to other states

Last year, we conducted a competitiveness analysis of all 46 states that held state legislative elections.

Here is how the 2011 New Jersey elections would have stacked up to the 46 states measured in the 2010 index.

• Open seats: With 17.50% of seats open, New Jersey would have been the 19th most competitive state in this variable, just above Georgia and below Oklahoma.

• Primaries: With 82.83% of incumbents running unopposed in primaries, New Jersey would have been the 26th most competitive state in this variable, just above Indiana and below Illinois.

• Major Party Candidates with no Major Party Opposition: With 5.83% of seats fielding only one major party candidate, New Jersey would have been the 4th most competitive state in this variable, just above Oregon and below Minnesota.

Therefore, New Jersey would have been tied for 10th with Utah in last year’s overall competitiveness index.

Footnote

The impact of redistricting will also be felt by incumbents who were moved to different districts. There are eight current incumbents who, for this study, are considered challengers because they will be running in a different district from the one they currently represent. Those eight incumbents are:

State Senate Republican

General Assembly Democratic

Republican

Ballotpedia note: Kevin Diana, Justin Haas, Tyler King and Tyler Millhouse contributed to this report.

By Kyle Maichle

DENVER, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State-Elect Scott Gessler is urging lawmakers to consider Voter ID legislation when the General Assembly begins its new session in January. ^[1]

Colorado currently requires voters to show some type of identification before casting a ballot. Under the law, voters must present one of ten acceptable forms of identification before going to the polls^[2]. However, the requirements range from a driver’s license to an utility bill. An elector who cannot produce any of the acceptable forms of identification must cast a provisional ballot. In order for a provisional ballot the be counted, a elector must send a photocopy of their identification to their county clerk. ^[2] Colorado is one of 18 states that require voters to show identification before voting, but do not strictly mandate the use of photo identification. ^[2]

Gessler wants Colorado to join eight other states that require voters to show photo identification before casting a ballot. The Secretary of State-Elect told KUSA-TV in Denver that: “you want to make sure the people who are voting are who they say they are, same with those who register to vote…photo identification doesn’t solve every problem but it’s certainly an anti-fraud tool that should be used here in Colorado.” Also, Gessler said that any voter ID bill introduced by the General Assembly must have a provision to allow citizens that don’t have access to identification to get one at little or no cost.” ^[1]

Other states that are pursuing to pass voter identification laws in 2011 include Arizona, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin. ^{[3] [4] [5] [6]}

By Kyle Maichle

SPRINGFIELD, Illinois: Members of the Illinois House of Representatives approved legislation to legalize civil unions in the Land of Lincoln. Despite the passage of the bill, it did not come at the expense of a emotionally charged debate on the floor of the Illinois State House. ^[1]

The bill to legalize civil unions passed on a 61-52 vote. During the debate, two openly gay and lesbian lawmakers used their personal stories to persuade fellow State House members to pass the legislation. Rep. Greg Harris (D-Chicago), a openly gay lawmaker and lead author of the bill, compared the efforts to promote equality between gays and lesbians to past efforts by women and African Americans. Harris also argued that recent polling shows that a majority of Illinois citizens want civil unions and said that the definition of marriage would not be changed. Rep. Deb Mell (D-Chicago) also used her personal story in her attempt to persuade lawmakers. Mell’s partner sat alongside her on the floor of the Illinois State House to witness the emotionally charged debate. ^[1]

However, some conservative lawmakers expressed concern that a civil unions bill would open the door for gay marriage in Illinois. Rep. David Reis (R-Effingham) argued that approval of civil unions would open the door for Illinois courts to legalize gay marriage. Rep. Ron Stephens (R-Metro East) denounced the argument of Rep. Harris that the battle to legalize civil unions is similar to past battles towards equality in U.S. history. Stephens argued that the acceptance of homosexuality contributed to the fall of Greece and Rome and could harm the U.S. if more states followed Illinois lead. Six Republican lawmakers including Suzanne Bassi, Mark Beaubien, William Black, Elizabeth Coulson, Rosemary Mulligan, and Angelo Saviano voted yes with Democrats to legalize civil unions. ^[1]

The bill awaits passage in the Illinois State Senate in which the debate is expected to be very emotional. Governor Pat Quinn told FOX Chicago News that he would sign the bill if both houses of the General Assembly approve it. ^[1]

By Kyle Maichle

MADISON, Wisconsin: Wisconsin Governor-Elect Scott Walker and Republican leaders in the State Legislature are pressing to stop a lame duck session geared towards approving union contracts for state employees.

The Wisconsin Governor-Elect sent a letter to outgoing Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan (D-Janesville, 44th District) and Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker (D-Wausau Area, 29th District) demanding that the lame duck session be stopped. ^[1] In the letter, Walker said: “bringing the Legislature into a extraordinary or a special session with the sole purpose of finalizing public employee union contracts before my inauguration will likely lead to a need for more aggressive spending cuts.” The Governor-Elect pressed both Sheridan and Decker to: “please delay further action on these contracts so we can fully evaluate its impact on the next state budget.” ^[1]

Senate Minority Leader Scott Fitzgerald demanded that the outgoing Democrat leaders of the Legislature release the the contracts to the public and the media. The Republican leader of the State Senate said: “if the deals have been cut and the lame-duck session is already in motion, what’s the need for all the secrecy? The taxpayers, the ones actually paying the bills, deserve some transparency here.” ^[2] Assembly Minority Leader Jeff Fitzgerald also expressed serious concern involving the secrecy and timing of the lame duck session. The Republican Leader of the State Assembly said: “having Jim Doyle lead the ousted Democrats through a rushed extraordinary session with little or no review should raise numerous red flags.” ^[3]

However, Assembly Democrats representing the Madison Metro Area denounced the calls of Legislative Republicans and the Governor-Elect to stop a lame duck session. Rep. Joseph Parisi (D-Madison East Side/East Suburbs, 48th District) said: “Republicans are attempting to make something nefarious out of the workers’ contracts, but these workers have been dutifully performing their jobs every day for 18 months, without a contract, based on money that has already been budgeted.” Rep. Terese Berceau (D-Madison West Side, 76th District) also decried calls to stop a lame-duck session by stating that: “these workers (state employees) have spent the past year-and-a-half doing more with less every day on the job. To go back and try to take money away from paychecks they’ve already earned would be unjust and demoralizing.”. ^[4]

According to Senator Fitzgerald, a lame duck session may happen after the December 10, 2010, deadline to return ballots in order to ratify the agreements. ^[2]

By Greg Janetka

With 87 partisan state legislative chambers in play on November 2, Democrats gained seats in only 7. These included two lower chambers – the California State Assembly and the Delaware House of Representatives – along with state senates in Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, and West Virginia. None of these chambers changed hands after the 2010 election, with Democrats controlling 6 of the 7. Democrats picked up no more than 2 seats in any of the chambers.

Lower chambers

California

Democrats gained 1 seat in the California Assembly. They hold a 22 seat majority.

Delaware

Democrats gained 2 seats in the Delaware House of Representatives. They hold an 11 seat majority.

State senates

Hawaii

Democrats gained 1 seat in the Hawaii State Senate. They hold a 23 seat majority.

Maryland

Democrats gained 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate. They hold a 23 seat majority.

Massachusetts

Democrats gained 1 seat in the Massachusetts State Senate. They hold a 32 seat majority.

Missouri

Democrats gained 1 seat in the Missouri Senate. Republicans hold a 10 seat majority.

West Virginia

Democrats gained 1 seat in the West Virginia Senate. They hold a 7 seat majority.

MADISON, Wisconsin The Republicans wasted no time in naming new leadership for their legislative chambers. Interestingly, the chambers will each be led by a Fitzgerald. Scott Fitzgerald, the new Senate Majority leader is the brother of Jeff Fitzgerald, the new Assembly speaker.

The Senate roster was announced just two days after the election:

Majority Leader – Scott Fitzgerald (13th District, Beaver Dam, Horicon, Waupun)

Assistant Majority Leader – Glenn Grothman (20th District, West Bend, Port Washington, Northwest Milwaukee Suburbs)

Senate President – Mike Ellis (19th District, Appleton, Neenah, Menasha)

President Pro-Tem – Joe Liebham (9th District Manitowoc/Sheboygan)

Republican Caucus Chair (Majority Whip) Dan Kapanke (32nd District, LaCrosse Area, Prairie du Chein)

Republican state senators named to be members of the Joint Finance Committee were also announced:

Co-chair – Alberta Darling (8th District, River Hills)

Member, Glenn Grothman (20th District, West Bend)

Member, Sheila Harsdorf (10th District, River Falls),

Member, Randy Hopper (18th District, Fond du Lac),

Member, Luther Olsen (14th District, Ripon)

Member, Joe Leibham (9th District, Sheboygan).

Assembly Republicans announced their picks just one week after election day:

Assembly Speaker – Jeff Fitzgerald (39th District, Juneau)

Majority Leader – Scott Suder (69th District, Abbotsford)

Assembly President Pro-Tem – Bill Kramer (97th District, Waukesha)

Note: Robin Vos is being considered as the other co-chair of the Joint Finance Committee. (63rd District (Racine)

Senate Democrats have named the following leaders for the upcoming session:

Minority leader: Mark Miller (16th District , Monona)

Assistant minority leader: Dave Hansen (30th District, Green Bay)

Democratic Caucus Chair: Julie Lassa (24th District, Stevens Point) ^{[1] [2] [3]}